Summary/Political Context
As the new Minister of Finance (appointed November, 2024), Jim Reiter delivered his first budget on Wednesday – kicking off the spring sitting of the provincial legislature. Reiter reported that this year’s budget was difficult to project due to the “erratic and unpredictable” threats of tariffs.
Themes
Tariffs
This budget reflects themes frequently heard from Premier Scott, including health, education and public safety, but does not include a contingency plan in response to the 10 per cent energy tariffs and 25 per cent general export tariffs implemented by the U.S. in early March.
It did however include a worst-case scenario projection– estimating that if the tariffs stayed in place for a year:
- Saskatchewan exports to the U.S. would be reduced by 30.4 per cent or $8.2 billion.
- Saskatchewan’s real GDP would in turn decrease by $4.9 billion – while provincial revenue would be reduced by $1.4 billion.
Plausible scenarios were also introduced if tariffs proceed whereby Saskatchewan could see an $8.2-billion reduction of exports from the province to the U.S. — a decrease of real GDP by up to $4.9 billion (or 5.8 per cent) and a $1.4-billion reduction in revenue.
Health Care
Health is the largest expense in the budget at $8.1 billion, a record amount and increase of $485 million from last year while the Saskatchewan Health Authority will receive a 5.6 per cent increase, totalling $4.9 billion. In terms of acute care, the government emphasised investments to support its goal to complete 450,00 surgeries within four years. The Saskatchewan Cancer Agency is set to receive $279 million in 2025-26, up $30 million from last year, which will go towards screening programs for cervical, lung, and breast cancer.
Education
This budget includes $14 million for education for a total of just over $4.4 billion. The Ministry of Education, which encompasses pre-kindergarten to Grade 12, will receive $3.5 billion of the total $4.4 billion, which represents an increase of 5.5 per cent or $183.5 million from the last budget. There is also $130 million included in the budget to fund a new teacher collective agreement and to address pressures of growing student enrolment.
Public Safety
The province committed to several initiatives to improve safety across Saskatchewan, including the addition of 100 new municipal police officers and 14 new Safer Communities and Neighbourhoods personnel. As part of the community safety budget, the Ministry of Corrections, Policing, and Public Safety will receive $784 million, with $119 million going towards the Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency, and $274 million for the Ministry of Justice and Attorney General.
Transportation
In this budget, Infrastructure spending continues to rise, with $15.9 billion dedicated to capital funding to improve transportation networks throughout the province. There is also an additional $142 million (over three years) to maintain highways, bridges, and to support transit services.
Fiscal Projections/Economic Outlook
The province’s revenue is expected to be $21.1 billion, a six per cent increase from $1.2 billion from last year, while total expenses are predicted at $21 billion, an increase of $909 million from the 2024-25 budget.
While the province forecasts a thin surplus of $12.2 million for the next fiscal year, its debt is projected to increase by $2.5 billion to $38.3 billion.
The team at Diplomat Consulting looks forward to the opportunity to work with you and your business to assess opportunities for alignment with government objectives, as well as support you in understanding any political risk. For more information, please contact Diplomat Consulting at hello@diplomatconsulting.com.
Ivan Ross Vrána
Managing Partner
