Quebec Minister of Finance Eric Girard tabled the province’s 2025 budget on Tuesday, March 25, 2025, entitled Pour un Québec fort, (For a Strong Quebec). This $165-billion budget focused on investments in infrastructure to help Quebecers build a strong economy, including measures to help businesses focus on their ability to innovate through an updated tax assistance system, but reduced spending in healthcare and education.
The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) framed its budget as a response to United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump’s threats.
Summary/Political Context
Quebec’s budget focused on infrastructure spending and supporting businesses through a unique R&D activities tax credit to counter potential trade war impacts. Infrastructure is a key part of the province’s strategy to strengthen economic resilience amid escalating U.S. trade tensions.
While acknowledging its $11.4 billion deficit for 2025–2026, or 1.8% of GDP, the provincial government frames this shortfall as a temporary measure to maintain essential services and economic momentum. Infrastructure investments are seen not as a cost, but as a strategy to generate long-term economic benefits.
Themes
Tariffs
Quebec’s 2025 budget includes a $2.0 billion contingency reserve for the next two fiscal years and $1.5 billion annually for the following three years to buffer against weaker-than-expected economic growth amid heightened uncertainty. The budget assumes that recent U.S. tariffs, averaging 10% and expected to last for at least two years, will reduce Quebec’s GDP growth by 0.7% and cost about 25,000 jobs.
Health Care
Minister Girard stated that improving public services remains a priority. The CAQ says it will commit $6.8 billion in new money over six years to support Quebecers. While Quebec’s 2025 budget included a slight increase of 3% in overall health care spending to $65.5 billon, it is lower than in previous years, and sceptics are concerned that the increase won’t likely be enough to maintain both the quality of services and access to them. The budget does however provide for $37.5 million over five years to train more doctors and $1.5 billion over five years to fund the supply of pharmaceutical treatments in hospitals.
Transportation
In the 2025 Quebec budget, $35.8 billion is allocated to the road network for maintenance, upgrades, and modernization of transportation corridors, while $14.5 billion is dedicated to public transit for network expansion, service improvements, and electrification projects. That is $258 million less than expected on maintaining the metro system over the next three years. Éric Alan Caldwell, the chair of the Société de transport de Montréal (STM), said the STM had asked the government to increase the amount of money allocated to maintaining public transit infrastructure, but it didn’t get it.
Education
The Quebec government’s 2025 budget includes a 2.2% overall increase in education funding. Nearly $1.1 billion over five years will go toward fostering educational success, promoting participation in sports and supporting access to child care.
Fiscal Outlook/Economic Projections
Quebec has one of the highest net debt-to-GDP ratios among provinces and is projecting a record $13.6 billion deficit for fiscal year 2025–26. Stringent migration targets and an aging population will strain the tax base and healthcare system in the coming decade. The province aims to balance its budget by 2030, but this depends on optimistic assumptions of strong economic growth, corporate profits, and job creation.
According to the Conference Board of Canada, “over the next two years, the deficit is expected to decline, reaching $5.7 billion by 2027–28”.
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Ivan Ross Vrána
Managing Partner
