Three Peat – The Progressive Conservatives Win Another Majority Vote

Introduction

Decision desks across the province called the Ontario election within the first five minutes after the polls closed.

Here are the results:

• The Progressive Conservatives (PC) won re-election by winning 80 seats, 43% of the popular vote.
• The New Democratic Party (NDP) won 27 seats, thereby remaining the Official Opposition with 18.6% of the vote.
• The Liberals won 14 seats (and after two elections re-gained official party status within the legislature) and managed to get 29.9% of the vote.
• Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie did not win her seat losing  to incumbent PC Sylvia Gualtieri by 1,227 votes – she did however commit to staying on as leader. 
• The Greens won 2 seats and took 4.8% of the popular vote.
• Independent Bobbi Ann Brady was re-elected in the riding of Haldiman-Norfolk, winning back-to-back elections.
• Voter turnout was disappointing at 45% and was on par with the record low of 44% in the 2022 election.

Analysis

Not since 1959 had a leader (PC Premier Leslie Frost) won three majorities in a row. Premier Doug Ford argued that he needed to call an early election given the impending tariff war with the U.S. However, the election results did not change the standings in the legislature in any significant manner. The only party that made any gains were the Liberals. They came in second in the popular vote, and finished third in seat count.

Compared to the 2022 election the PCs lost 3 seats;  the NDP lost 4; the Liberals gained 6 seats; and, the Greens gained 1. Not much change for an election that was called 18 months early, held in the winter, and will cost approximately (according to estimates) $180 million. 

The PCs now have a solid majority and another four years to govern. They will have to deal with numerous issues facing the province, including:

•  a healthcare system that is overburdened;
• an educational system that is unable to keep up with demand;
• a series of post-secondary colleges eliminating several of their programs—in some cases 45% of their total offerings are being abolished;
• the ongoing need to improve and expand transportation infrastructure;
• low GDP growth;
• a fiscal deficit that is growing (which the Finance Minister in Budget 2024 committed to eradicating it by 2026); 
• debt-to-GDP ratio of 37.9%; and,
• an impending trade war with Canada’s largest trading partner.

Now that the election is over, Ontarians will expect the PCs and Premier Ford to make significant progress on dealing with the issues mentioned above.    

For more information, please contact Diplomat Consulting at: hello@diplomatconsulting.com.

Ivan Ross Vrána

Managing Partner