October 20, 2024
The results are in and the only thing it tells us for certain is the British Columbia (BC) NDP are no longer in the majority. In fact, at the time this document was written, both the BC NDP and BC Conservatives are in a dead heat when it comes to elected seats. Both parties have 40 seats. However, the BC NDP are leading in an additional six ridings while the BC Conservatives lead in five. The BC Greens have won two seats. These results mean it is likely no party will equal or surpass the 47 seats required for a majority (there are a total of 93 seats in the BC legislature).
The popular vote was also extremely close – the BC NDP won the popular vote with 908,603 (44.6%) and the BC Conversative finished second with 887,736 (43.6%) – a difference of only 20,867 votes. This election marks one of the closest in both BC and Canadian history. Preliminary voter turnout was just under 57%, slightly up from 54% in 2020, but down from about 61% in 2017.
Both the leaders of the BC NDP and BC Conservatives won their seats. However, the BC Green Leader Sonia Furstenau lost her seat to the BC NDP. A total of five BC NDP Cabinet Ministers lost their seats. There are eight seats that are currently being decided between the BC NDP and BC Conservatives with a margin of less than 1.5% in the vote count.
Analysis
What does it all mean? BC has been here before. In 2017 the then BC Liberals and BC NDP were tied with 44 seats each (it was a smaller Legislature). The Premier (and BC Liberal Party Leader) Christy Clark wanted to lead a minority government but then lost a non-confidence vote in the Legislature. The BC NDP went on to form government with the support of the BC Greens.
Yesterday’s result could mean that the BC Conservatives are in the same role has the NDP were in 2017. Also notable is the BC Conservatives came from relatively obscurity (they held eight seats before) to the point where they now have a chance at forming government.
However, if these results remain, the BC NDP will have the first opportunity to form a minority government (as per Parliamentary Rules) but it is not clear if the BC Greens will formally or informally support them as they did in 2017. In addition, the Legislature has to elect a Speaker of the Assembly. This means any one of the three parties could ‘lose’ a member given the Speaker can only vote in the Legislature in case of a tie.
Therefore, until all votes have been counted and any recounts have been undertaken, the only certainty is uncertainty given both parties have an opportunity at forming government. And once a government is formed, it is unlikely the Legislature meet before the first quarter of 2025. Only until then, when it faces its first test of confidence, will we know if there is some stability or BC is headed towards another election.
For more information, please contact Diplomat Consulting at: hello@diplomatconsulting.com.
Ivan Ross Vrána
Managing Partner
