October 22, 2024
New Brunswick (NB) likes change – since 2006 it has alternated between the NB Liberals and NB Progressive Conservatives (PCs) with Premiers only being able to serve one term. While Premier Blain Higgs broke this pattern and served two terms, last night he lost his seat and the election to the Liberals. Among the PC losses were five cabinet ministers.
Susan Holt becomes the first women Premier in that province’s history with the liberals winning a majority with 31 seats. The PCs will form opposition with 16 seats while the Greens held onto official party status (within the legislature) by winning two seats. The People’s Alliance which had two seats in the last legislature did not elect anyone and the NDP remained shut out (they have not won a seat since 2003).
Voter turnout was 66.09%. As for the popular vote, the Liberals received 48%, the PCs 35%, the Greens 14%, the NDP 1.3%, and the People’s Alliance with 0.9%.
Analysis
What can you expect from the new Liberal government? In her victory speech the Liberal leader stated: “We’re going to watch the bottom line and deliver fiscal responsibility while we invest in the services that you need, like health care and education and an affordable place to call home.”
While this will be no easy task, the Premier-designate will be aided by the fact that the province posted a surplus amounting to about 0.5% of GDP (2023/2024 FY), and a debt-to-GDP ratio below that of several other provinces. Based on the last budget (2024) there will be small surpluses over the next few years. However, this relies on reasonably strong economic growth being maintained into 2025 and 2026.
The major issues that the new government will have to address are education, health care and housing. The public school system has been experiencing shortages in teachers, school psychologists, and bus drivers. Hospitals throughout the province are facing an overcapacity of patients, excessively long waiting times, and health workers suffering from burnout. Since 2019, housing prices have nearly doubled in NB and the province has also seen major increases in homelessness with Fredericton, Saint John, and Moncton collectively experiencing an 80% increase in homelessness between 2021 and 2023.
A strong majority will allow the Liberals to enact several policies to address the issues the province is facing. Usually, the desire is for a new government to spend more money. However, in order to pay for an increase in funding, the government will be met with an age-old conundrum – is it going to be done by running a deficit (and therefore increasing the debt) or by raising taxes?
For now, a cabinet will have to be chosen and a Speech from the Throne written. Once these two tasks are completed, we will be able to better gauge where the new government will take the province over the next four years.
For more information, please contact Diplomat Consulting at: hello@diplomatconsulting.com.
Ivan Ross Vrána
Managing Partner
